Shocks, crises, and false alarms: how to assess true macroeconomic risk.

The shocks and crises of recent yearspandemic, recession, inflation, warhave forced executives and investors to recognize that the macroeconomy is now a risk to be actively managed. Yet unreliable forecasting, pervasive doomsaying, and whipsawing data severely hamper the task of decoding the landscape. Are disruptions transient and ephemeralor permanent and structural? False alarms are costly traps, but so are true structural changes that go undetected. With rational optimism rather than gloom, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms speaks to the key financial and macroeconomic controversies that define our timesand provides a compass for navigating the global economy. Rather than relying on blinking dashboards or flashy headlines, leaders can and should judge macroeconomic risks for themselves.